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China Insurance Sector:December premiums –mixed life,steady

2019-10-10 17:15

Life premium growth a mixed bag, stable P&C.

    Life – mixed performance.

    +22.4% in 11M17), followed by Ping An at 23.6% (+24.6%), Ch Continent at 18.4%(+19.5%), PICC at 14.8% (+14.9%), and CPIC at 11.6% (+11.7%).

    However, we believe the easy growth enjoyed by Chinese life insurers since 2015may be ending, on higher deposit competition from banks. 1Y WMP yields havesurpassed average crediting rates offered by listed life insurers since Jul-17, whichwill inevitably lower the relative attractiveness of insurance savings products. Webelieve insurers with a stronger protection focus should be relatively resilient, andthus prefer Ping An and NCI as our top picks. We believe Ping An’s strongestprotection focus and superior risk management capabilities should justify apremium valuation, while NCI should be relatively resilient thanks to its efforts tolower dependence on savings policies. We have Buys on Ch Taiping and CPIC andHold on China Life given its vulnerability to weaker demand for savings products.

    In terms of 2017 underlying growth (ex-VAT impact), Taiping led at 23.7% (vs.

    Investment risks include significant investment market weakness, weaker-thanexpectedgrowth, and China’s macro risks.

    -18.6% to 25.5% in Nov). Ping An and China Life continued to be the only twoinsurers recording double-digit growth, at 23.6% and 23.5% yoy, respectively.

    P&C – steady growth continued.

    Prefer life players with strong protection focus.

    Ping An led Dec growth at 23.6% yoy (vs. +25.5% in Nov), followed by China Lifeat 23.5% (+14.4%), NCI at 9.0% (+4.7%), PICC Group at 5.9% (-18.6%), CPIC at-1.3% (+5.9%), and Taiping at -28.0% (+4.5%). In terms of 2017 full-year growth,Ping An led at 33.4% yoy (vs. +34.2% in 11M17), followed by CPIC at 26.7%(+27.6%), Taiping at 20.5% (+24.5%), China Life at 19.0% (+18.8%), PICC Groupat -2.6% (-2.8%), and NCI at -2.9% (-3.4%). Taiping Life recorded decent individualregular premiums growth of 34.0% in 2017, despite a weak Dec (-35.3%) as thecompany focused on jump-start pre-sales. CPIC reported agency channel growthof 33.6%, with 32.3% from FYP and 34.2% from renewal business.

    December life premium growth was mixed, ranging from -28.0% to 23.6% (vs.

    We reiterate our positive view on the Chinese insurance sector and believe thatthe current valuation of 1.1x 2018E P/EV (assuming 4.0% long-term investment return) for life insurers is attractive, given the sector's long-term growth potential.

    Ping An maintained decent Dec FYP (ex-grp) growth at 20.8%, with strong 2017full-year growth of 37.4%. China Life had planned to start 2018 jump-start salespreparation later than its peers, and thus maintained a steady growth momentumin Dec. Given the rising competition from bank WMPs, 2018 jump-start sales willbe challenging for life insurers, and insurers with strong protection focus will likelybe more resilient. P&C premium growth was largely stable, ranging from 8.9%to 35.7% (vs. 11.2% to 27.2% in Nov), led by Ch Taiping (+35.7%). We maintainour positive view on Chinese insurers on valuations and prefer life over P&C. Toppicks: Ping An and NCI.

    P&C premium growth remained steady in Dec, with underlying yoy growthranging from 8.9% to 35.7%. Taiping led Dec growth at 35.7% yoy (vs. 27.2% inNov), followed by Ping An at 16.0% (+17.6%) driven by non-auto (+28.6%), PICCat 13.6% (+16.5%), CPIC at 10.8% (+11.2%), and Ch Continent at 8.9% (+25.8%).

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