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原创 彼得林奇罕见受访,他提到了哪些股市投资

2020-03-17 01:23

图片 1

文/陈光胜

彼得·林奇是华尔街最伟大的基金经理之一,创造传奇后,1990年选择急流勇退,一晃已有30,期间很少有他的声音。

今年12月20日,75岁的彼得·林奇接受了《巴伦周刊》的专访,这位传奇投资大师贡献着他的智慧,对当今市场做出了自己的判断,也慷慨的提供了对目前投资的相关建议。

逐字阅读,启示颇多,记录感悟,遂成此文。

01

彼得·林奇是选股大师,在麦哲伦担任基金经理时,每年要研究上千家的上市公司。在访谈中,他强调长期而言,成长股投资带来的收益优于价值型的股票,但是要严格定义和选择成长股,而不是那些伪的成长股。

回看A股也是如此,这些年如茅台、恒瑞等很多的成长股收益惊人。反观大量的周期股和伪成长股,虽然,有时短期收益惊人,但是长期下来,基本是过山车的行情,哪里来,回哪里去。

与中国投资型经济增长模式相适应,A股大量的是周期性公司,只是在炒到末期时,大家误以为把它看成成长股了。如投资者误把周期当成长,在高位买入后,不肯止损,像中石油那样,一套十几年,那损失就大了。

展开全文

成长股投资是一种主动型的投资,而在最近几十年,华尔街的主动投资遭到被动投资围追堵截,指数型的被动投资比较流行。对此,彼得·林奇说,如果你是被动投资的,那就没有机会战胜指数,他还举了他公司的产品和优秀的基金经理长期战胜指数的事实。

这个被动投资和主动投资我觉得没有什么优劣,只是个人根据投资者自身情况作出适当的选择,如果自己缺乏研究的时间和精力,那还是被动投资比较靠谱,毕竟我们大量的投资人没有彼得·林奇那样的专业能力,毕竟大量的主动投资者是无法战胜市场的。

02

在研究股票的方法上,他给了我们几个建议。

首先这个公司要有持久的竞争能力,尤其是那些非成长性行业里的成长性公司。这个我认为太棒了!我们一般人都以为是选好行业,好公司,也就是在成长性行业里选成长性的公司,彼得·林奇却建议我们到非成长性的行业里去找优秀的公司,这个特别适合目前的中国市场。

因为成长性的行业大家给予过高的成长性溢价,股价没有了安全边际,大量的是在炒作梦想和渺茫的未来。一旦落空,鸡飞蛋打,损失惨重。而在一些停止增长的成熟行业里,一批优秀的公司却持续逆势成长,收入和利润比起市场关注极高的科技成长股不知要好多少,关键还价格公道,甚至长期低估。比如水泥里的海螺、化工里的万化等等。这些看似不性感的行业,好的公司却是日进斗金,投资这些企业的投资者,这些年也是赚的盆满钵满。在可见的未来,这样的投资机会还将层出不穷。

还有,一个优秀的CEO也是必须要考虑的,他举了微软等很多的例子,来说明优秀的管理层的重要性。

另外就是投资时机的选择,彼得·林奇建议我们关注那些困境反转型的时机,他举了金融危机中美国银行的例子。但前提是这些公司不能像雷曼那样倒下,要有熬过黑夜,迎来黎明的能力。

回到A股,这种机会也是黄金买点,曾经三聚氰胺风波里的伊利、白酒塑化剂危机里的茅台,敢于重仓抓住一个,命运就改变了。价值投资的一个重要特征就是逆向,首先是要敢于逆向,再者逆向的前提是有能力逆向,简单来说,一个是标的不死,二是仓位不爆。

03

在访谈中,他还慷慨地介绍了他认为现在市场上比较好的机会。

这两个机会目前看来都是困境反转型的机会。第一个,他提到了海运的机会,由于前些年行业不景气,大量的公司资产负债表被破坏,没有能力购置新的产能,产能在持续出清的过程中,他预计未来的产能还是比较缺的,虽然世界经济不是太景气,但是海运行业供需改善的机会还是很大的。

另一个,是石化能源行业,全世界对新能源的憧憬,把传统的化石能源的价格打到了一个非常低的低点,但是实际上,新能源代替化石能源的时间会比我们想的要长,因此他认为有一个价格修复的过程。我也是比较认同这个观点,今年在供需环境好转的预期下,A股的油运股——招商轮船走出了翻倍的行情,未来的行情高点也是值得期待的。让人悲伤的中国石油,哪一天会不会变成新的“核心资产”,我觉得也是可以观察的。

访谈中,他对投资者加强投资前研究的重要性反复提及,不了解一家公司就不要买入。还要善于利用自己的优势,生活体验,工作经验,普通投资者完全可以“战胜华尔街”!

以上只是个人的一点心得体会,为了怕误导到大家,特意把英文版附在后面,还把它翻译了一下,不过本人英文水平所限,翻译的可能不是太准确,英文好的直接略过,跟大师直接对话!

04

访谈原文及翻译

Peter Lynch Draws on 50 Years of Stock-Picking to Find Growth Opportunities in Today’s Market

彼得·林奇用50年投资经验,探索当今市场机遇

By Leslie P. NortonUpdated Dec. 20, 2019 11:48 pm ET / Original Dec. 20, 2019 4:39 pm EPeter Lynch was generous with his time and insight when Barron’s sat down with him at Fidelity’s Boston headquarters. He was not, however, generous with his stock picks. Instead, he shared his views on various sectors and his thought process around choosing stocks today. An excerpt of our conversation follows.

作者: 莱斯利·P·诺顿更新于美国东部时间2019年12月20日晚上11:48/原始于美国东部时间2019年12月20日下午4:39,巴伦在富达波士顿总部和彼得.林奇进行了面对面访谈。彼得·林奇花时间大方分享了他的经济洞察方向。然而,他对具体选股没有过多分享。相反,他分享了他对各个行业的看法,以及他今天选择股票的思考过程。下面是我们谈话的一部分。

Barron’s: What are your insights since retiring from Magellan?

巴伦:从麦哲伦退休后你有什么经济洞察?

Peter Lynch: After 50 years of doing this professionally, it reinforces that growth stocks are better than nongrowth stocks. Growth stocks, by definition, are where sales have really grown. People confuse it with earnings going up, but [if you just look at earnings growth] you mix in turnarounds and cyclicals. A company can go from losing money to a 2% margin, to a 12% margin, and earnings are up sixfold—but that’s not a growth company.

彼得·林奇:经过50年的专业化运作,我更加确信增长型股票比非增长型股票更好。从定义上讲,增长型股票是销售真正增长的公司股票。人们把它与收益上升混为一谈,但是如果你只看收益增长的话,就会把扭亏为盈和周期性增长混为一谈。一家公司可以从亏损到2%的利润率,再到12%的利润率,盈利增长了6倍,但这不是一家成长型公司。

Passive management has stomped active.In terms of attracting assets, yes, though not at Fidelity. Joel [Tillinghast, manager of Fidelity Low-Priced Stock (ticker: FLPSX)] has done it [beaten his benchmarks], Will [Danoff, manager of Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX)] has done it, Steve Wymer [manager of Fidelity Growth Company (FDGRX)] has done it. We have 10 or 15 funds that have beaten their benchmarks for 10, 15, 20, 25 years now.

被动的管理使主动的管理步履蹒跚。在吸引资产方面,是的,虽然不一定在富达。乔尔经理蒂林赫斯特做到了[超过了他的基准],威尔经理达诺夫)做到了,史蒂夫•怀默经理)做到了。我们有10到15只基金在10年、15年、20年、25年内都超过了基准。

What characterizes a great company?

一个伟大的公司的特征是什么?

My best stocks have been ones where I didn’t have to worry about the big picture. A company with a better mousetrap, a growth company in a non-growth industry. Stop Shop and Dunkin’ Donuts are two incredibly successful local companies. The question is, how long is the story? I wish I had been to Arkansas and gone to see Sam Walton of Walmart. Ten years after Walmart went public, it was a 25-year-old company. It was up tenfold. I said, “Ooh, I missed that one.” Then it went up 50-fold. Sherwin Williams earnings are up 20-fold since I managed the stock in Magellan. The professional painter in our little town goes to Sherwin Williams, not to Home Depot. Why didn’t I look at Sherwin Williams? Why didn’t I spend an hour on that? So staggering, dumb, or just lazy. I thought it was the last inning of the ballgame, without doing the research.

You can’t make these conclusions without some basis. Really bad American fast food has done brilliantly overseas. There are 1,400 McDonald’s in France. You want to be in [the stock] in the second inning of the ballgame, and out in the seventh. That could be 30 years. Like the people who were really wrong on McDonald’s. They thought they were near the end, and they forgot about the other seven billion people in the world.

我最好的股票是那些我不必担心大局的股票。一家更有竞争力的的公司,一家非成长行业的成长型公司。StopShop和Dunkin'Donuts是两家非常成功的本地公司。问题是,成功能持续多久?我真希望我去过阿肯色州,去见山姆·沃尔顿的沃尔玛。沃尔玛上市十年后,它已经是一家有25年历史的公司了。涨了十倍。我说,“哦,我错过了。”然后上涨了50倍。自从我管理麦哲伦的股票以来,舍温威廉姆斯的收益上涨了20倍。我们小镇上的职业画家去舍温·威廉姆斯,而不是家得宝。我为什么不看看舍温·威廉姆斯?为什么我不花一个小时去做这个功课?如此惊人,愚蠢,或只是懒惰。我没做调查就以为这是球赛的最后一局。

没有依据你就不能得出这些结论。非常糟糕的美国快餐在海外做得非常出色。法国有1400家麦当劳。你想在球赛第二局进[股票],在第七局出。可能要30年。就像那些误解麦当劳的人一样,他们以为自己快完蛋了,却忘记了世界上其他70亿人。

The lists of companies in your books are quaint. They’ve mostly been disrupted.

你书上的公司名单很精妙。他们大部分都被打乱了。

That’s why you ought to write down, “Why am I owning this?” Cheap is different from a [good] story. There’s a great expression on the Street: It’s always darkest before pitch black. Wait until something’s gotten better. I made a lot of money on Bank of America. I’m not saying it’s a buy today. But Bank of America [during the financial crisis] went from $18 to $7. They had to borrow money wholesale. I knew they couldn’t go under because they were 120% retail funded. They had FDIC [protection]. They went up a lot after that.

这就是为什么你应该写下,“我为什么拥有这个?“便宜不等同于好。华尔街有个很好的表达:破晓之前最黑暗,等待直到情况好转。我在美国银行赚了很多钱。我不是说今天就买。而是在金融危机期间,美国银行从18美元降至7美元的时候买入。他们不得不大量借钱。我知道他们不会破产,因为他们有120%的零售资金支持,有联邦存款保险公司[保护]。之后他们涨了很多。

How would you update your advice today?

你今天将如何更新你的建议?

Peter Lynch: If You Only Invest in an Index, You’ll Never Beat It.If you cannot find growth companies in innings three through five of the ballgame, look at turnarounds, special situations, back at the cyclicals. There’s a real shortage now of growth companies. That is a red flag, because all the money is flowing into [a few companies]. There’s an end to that game. It will scare me if this trend continues for a couple more years.

彼得·林奇:如果你只投资于一个指数,你永远不会超过它 。如果你在游戏的第三局到第五局都找不到成长型公司,那就看看转机,特殊情况,回到周期型公司。现在成长型公司确实短缺。这是个危险信号,因为所有的钱都流入了。那场比赛结束了。如果这种趋势再持续几年,会让我很害怕。

What’s your view of unicorns?

你对独角兽有什么看法?

That’s a big difference today—companies stay private a lot longer. The next Google might stay private for an extra 10 years. That makes it more difficult [for individual investors]. The day they come public, a thousand organizations have looked at it, and they’re probably pretty fairly priced. Fidelity can put 5% of funds into these things. The public can’t do that. I’d rather look at something that’s been around for a long time.

当今公司与以往有很大不同,因为当今公司保持低调的时间要长得多。下一个谷歌可能会多保密10年。这使得[对个人投资者]变得更加困难。在它们上市的那一天,一千家机构都在关注它,而且它们的价格可能相当公道。富达公司可以把5%的资金投入这些东西。公众不能这么做。我宁愿看一些已经存在很久的东西。

Which CEOs do you like?

你喜欢哪些CEO?

Satya Nadella really turned around Microsoft [MSFT]. Dan Amos of AFLAC [AFL] is the longest-running CEO in the country after Warren Buffett. And how do you leave out the late Lee Iacocca [former CEO] of Chrysler?

萨蒂娅·纳德拉真的扭转了微软的局面。AFLAC的丹•阿莫斯是继沃伦•巴菲特之后,该国任职时间最长的CEO。当然,怎么能漏了克莱斯勒已故的李艾科卡的?

Where are the opportunities now?

现在机会在哪里?

I’m looking at industries that are doing badly; that for some reason will get better. Shipping. If you want to buy a ship, it’s a two- or three-year wait. People haven’t ordered ships for a long time, because by the time one comes in, prices may be down again.

Energy services is awful; that could have a major turn in the next year or two. Oil is interesting. Look, longer term, solar, windmills really work. But you need natural gas and oil to bridge to this. Everybody’s assuming the world’s going to not use oil for the next 20 years, or next year. China might sell five million electric vehicles next year, but they might also sell 17 million internal combustion engines. They don’t have old cars to retire. There are no electric airplanes. Near term, liquid natural gas and liquid petroleum gas might replace diesel fuel for trucks. I’m buying companies that I don’t think will go bankrupt. They’ve got to be around the next 18 to 24 months, or I have no interest.

我在看那些做得不好的行业,因为某些原因,它们会变得更好。航运。如果你想买一艘船,要等两三年。人们已经很久没有订过船了,因为等有人来的时候,价格可能又会下降。

能源服务糟糕透顶,未来一两年可能会有重大转变。石油很有趣。看,长期来看,太阳能,风力发电真的很管用。但你需要天然气和石油来达成。每个人都在假设未来20年或明年世界不会使用石油。中国明年可能销售500万辆电动汽车,但也可能同时销售1700万辆内燃机。他们的旧车并没有退休,也没有电动飞机。近期内,液化天然气和液化石油气可能会取代卡车的柴油。我在收购那些我认为不会破产的公司。他们必须在18到24个月左右,否则我就没兴趣了。

Can we ask which companies?

我们能问一下哪些公司吗?

No. I can’t recommend stocks anymore.

不,我不能再推荐股票了。

Anything else do you want investors to know?

你还想让投资者知道什么?

If you’re going to invest, you have to follow certain rules. If you want to ski, you ought to go to the bunny hill and learn how to stop. It doesn’t make you an Olympic skier, but then in certain cases, you have an edge on the Fidelitys of the world. You might be in the cement industry, and suddenly orders pick up. You can see things better. The one thing I want everybody who is buying individual stocks to get is that they have to understand the story, the five reasons something is going to go right for the company. If you can’t convince an 8-year-old why you own this thing, you probably shouldn’t own it. Don’t invest in a company before you look at the financials. If you made it through fifthgrade, you can handle the math.

如果你要投资,你必须遵循一定的规则。如果你想滑雪,你应该去兔子山学习如何停下来。这并不能让你成为一名奥运滑雪运动员,但在某些情况下,你比富达更有有优势。你可能在水泥行业(工作),突然订单增加了。你能看得更清楚。我希望每一个购买个股的人都明白这一点,这五个原因对公司来说都是正确的。如果你不能说服一个8岁的孩子你为什么拥有这东西,你可能不应该拥有它。在看财务报告之前不要投资于公司。如果你能读完五年级,你就能掌握数学。

Thanks, Peter.

谢谢,彼得。

重要提示:本人为作者个人观点,不作为“国英观察”投资意见。

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